Big Box Poland Industrial Market View

CB RICHARD ELLIS
Big Box Poland
Industrial Market View
www.cbre.eu/research
Q3 2009
GENERAL OVERVIEW
Quick Stats q-o-q
Poland Market’s Sectors
1
2
3
Completions
Demand
Vacancy Rate
Hot Topics
The total stock of modern warehouse
space in Poland, as of the end of Q3
2009, amounted to over 6 million sq m.
Last quarter the number of newly
delivered projects plunged and the
amount of warehouse space currently
under construction has been constantly
diminishing. Since the beginning of the
year, developers delivered 860,000 sq m
of new warehouse space but only
140,000 sq m is under construction in six
projects across the country.
The largest developers such as ProLogis,
Panattoni and Segro focus on existing
projects. Others, like Pinnacle and Valad
and local MLP Group or BIK compete for
a market share.
• First symptoms of the market
improvement – overall vacancy
decreased, supported by relatively
stable leasing activity.
As a result, limited supply of new space
had a significant impact on the vacancy
rate. The market started to absorb vacant
space and the ratio decreased this
quarter from 19% to 18%.
• In Q1-3 2009 total take-up reached
700,000 sq m – comparable
amount to the same period of 2008.
There are many signs of overall
improvements of the Polish economy.
The GDP growth for the second quarter
of the year was announced to reach
1.1%, the highest result in all European
countries. Retail consumer spending
power index is stable, positively
influencing the retail market which
generates the demand for warehouse
space across Poland.
• Total modern stock amounts to over
6 million sq m with 18% vacancy
rate in the whole country.
•
The number of new projects handed
over dropped down and the amount
of space under construction has been
significantly decreased.
The leasing in Q3 2009 was comparable
to the last quarter. It reached over
The analysis of occupiers shows that the
demand for warehouse space is now
generated by companies operating in the
sectors less vulnerable to the market
conjuncture,
such
as
FMGC,
pharmaceuticals, food, etc. However,
logistic
operators,
retailers
and
manufacturers remain the major tenants.
The average deal size recently increased
up to 7,500 sq m.
However, it should be pointed out that a
substantial share of the signed lease
agreements were renegotiations. In the
last quarter it amounted to 40%.
Companies prefer to stay in the same
location and use the space more
effectively.
For the time being rents remain stable,
although the effective rates have already
been significantly lowered. In some
regions with a large quantity of vacant
space developers offer rent-free periods
and the effective rents as much as 30%
lower than the headline ones. In general
prime headline rents are also decreasing,
but this rather a market adjustment. In
many cases, instead of rent free periods,
landlords quote the asking rents straight
at the level of the effective ones.
Q3 2009
Sector I
Sector II
Sector III
Total Stock (sq m)
566,000
1,920,000
3,574,000
Projects under construction (sq m)
0
37,000
102,000
Completion (sq m)
0
10,000
37,300
4,400
65,000
173,000
8%
21%
18%
4.50 – 5.00
3.20 – 3.50
3.20 – 3.90
Take-up (sq m)
Vacancy Rate
Prime Rents (EUR/sq m/month)
a
240,000 sq m and in the whole year it
amounted to almost 700,000 sq m. This
is almost the same result as registered
last year in the same period of time. The
increasing number of leasing transactions
is a good sign of improving market.
The above sector segmentation is of CB Richard Ellis’ authorship and detailed overleaf
©2009, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
MarketView Poland BIG BOX
SECTOR I – WAREHOUSES IN WARSAW
These warehouses and warehouse-type business parks
are located within a radius of 15 km from the centre of
Warsaw (the city borders).
WAREHOUSE NEW COMPLETIONS (‘000 sq m)
Sector I
Total warehousing stock in this sector currently amounts
to 566,000 sq m. In the first three quarters of the year
only 11,200 sq m of modern warehouse space was
delivered. Currently there are no schemes under
construction in the Warsaw area.
Since the beginning of the year 61,000 sq m of
warehouse space has been leased (but only 4,400 sq
m in Q3). Majority of tenants located in this area
operate in the FMCG sector. The sector’s average deal
size usually had been around 2,000 sq m, however this
year it has increased due to one built-to-suit transaction
signed by Torfarm with Panattoni (23,000 sq m),
unusually for this sector.
The vacancy rate in Q3 increased to 8% (from 7% in
Q2). Quoting rents went down to EUR 4.50 in the
fringe locations and EUR 5.00 /sq m/month in the
prime warehouse sites for small units. Still, they are
considerably high in comparison to other Sectors.
Sector II
Sector III
1 200
900
600
300
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1-3Q09
WAREHOUSES UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR (sq m)
Sector I
Sector II
Sector III
1 400 000
1 200 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
Q3 2009
10
However, around 40% of all the deals signed in Q3
were renegotiations. The largest transaction this quarter
took place in ProLogis Park Teresin – renewal of the
Schenker agreement (26,000 sq m).
4
©2009, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
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Sector I
Industrial leasing activity in Sector II as in all the others,
has decreased. Until now there have been 39
agreements registered for 181,000 sq m, while in the
whole 2008 around 370,000 sq m of warehouse
space was leased in 49 lease transactions.
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WAREHOUSE PRIME RENTS (EUR/sq m/month)
Currently there is only 37,000 sq m under construction
in Blonie by Europolis.
The vacancy rate in Q3 2009 increased slightly to 21%
and is generated by newly, speculatively delivered
buildings. Rental levels have remained relatively stable
and currently are quoted at EUR 3.20 - 3.90 /sq m
/month.
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These logistic parks are located within the area from 15
to 80 km from the centre of Warsaw along major
access roads. The most popular locations are
Pruszkow, Blonie, Nadarzyn, Mszczonow and Teresin.
This sector is attractive For developers, due to its close
proximity to the Warsaw agglomeration and availability
of large green field sites with expansion potential of
warehouse parks. At the end of Q3 the total amount of
warehouse space in logistics parks in Sector II reached
1,920,000 sq m, including 10,000 sq m delivered in
Pecice by Altmaster in the third quarter of 2009.
1 000 000
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SECTOR II – LOGISTICS PARKS AROUND
WARSAW
Sector II
Sector III
8
6
2
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009Q3
a
WAREHOUSE STOCK BY LOCATION
Warsaw I
18%
15%
Warsaw II
Silesia
12%
Central Poland
Poznan
33%
Wroclaw
9%
Other
4%
In the third quarter of 2009 take up slightly accelerated
reaching 173,000 sq m, recording an increase of over
20% in comparison to Q2. The largest new lease
(33,000 sq m) was closed by FM Logistic in Europolis
Park Poland Central. The vacancy rate has slowly started
to decrease and currently stands at 18%. Rents however
are still under downward pressure and amount to EUR 3.
20 – 3.90 /sq m/month.
9%
WAREHOUSE LEASING ACTIVITY BY SECTORS
Sector 1
Sector 2
These logistic parks are located in all other regions and
major cities of Poland excluding Warsaw. Sector III has
been the most active and dynamically expanding
warehouse and logistic market in Poland. It is currently
covering four key regions with three new locations
already emerged on the Polish warehouse map. At the
end of the quarter, total stock amounted to 3.6 million
sq m. Currently, the warehouse construction activity
plunged with only 102,000 sq m to be delivered at the
turn of 2009 and 2010.
Sector 3
1 500 000
1 200 000
MarketView Poland BIG BOX
SECTOR III - LOGISTICS PARKS IN POLAND
Silesia Region (Katowice Conurbation) is the largest
regional warehouse market with 1,110,000 sq m of
modern space and a further 11,000 sq m currently
under construction. This is the region with one of the
highest vacancy rate at the moment.
Central Poland Region, conveniently located at the
crossroad of the A1 and A2 highways, both actively
under construction. It has 900,000 sq m of existing
modern stock with one building under construction by
Panattoni in Lodz. Over the course of 2009, a total of
104,000 sq m of warehouse space has been leased
here. The vacancy rate currently is also high - 18%.
900 000
600 000
300 000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1-3Q09
KEY INDICATORS BY REGIONS IN Q3 2009 (‘000 sq m)
Existing Space
Space Under Construction
Planned
Poznan Region houses 751,000 sq m of modern
warehouse space with no new additions in a short
pipeline. The region, due to its excellent transportation
system and well developed retail and trade market, has
always been a popular logistic destination. In Q3
Eurocash renegotiated its lease agreement for over
23,000 sq m. The vacancy rate currently stands at 13%.
Wroclaw Region was the most active last quarters. It
offers 572,000 sq m of warehouse space with 41,000
sq m currently under construction. Leasing activity in
2009 so far totalled 132,000 sq m. The vacancy rate in
the Wroclaw region decreased to 18%.
Krakow
North
Wroclaw
Tri-City Region (Gdansk and Gdynia) is one of the
newest markets in the Sector III with a great potential
once the A1 highway is finished. There are only two
existing parks offering 148,000 sq m and fully let. There
are over 100,000 sq m planned.
Poznan
Central
Silesia
0
200
400
600
800
1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
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©2009, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
Q3 2009
Krakow Region is a local market in the Sector III,
serving mostly Krakow, as the proximity of Silesian hub
limits Krakow region’s warehouse development. Total
stock amounts to 53,000 sq m while 32,000 sq m is
under construction.
MarketView Warsaw Office
SECTOR III in Q3 2009
Silesia
Poznan
Central Wroclaw
Tri-City
Krakow
1,110,000
752,000
900,000
572,000
148,000
53,000
Under Construction (sq m)
11,000
0
17,000
41,000
0
32,000
Take Up (sq m)
24,000
35,000
73,000
29,000
6,000
5,000
Completion (sq m)
27,000
0
10,000
0
0
0
20%
13%
18%
18%
1%
2%
Total Stock (sq m)
For More information regarding the
Poland Industrial Market, please
contact:
CBRE POLAND OFFICE
Charlie Wardroper
Managing Director,
CB Richard Ellis
Vacancy Rate
Rondo ONZ 1,
00-124 Warszawa
tel: +48 22 544 80 00
e: [email protected]
CBRE INDUSTRIAL AGENCY
Tom Listowski
Associate Director,
CB Richard Ellis
Rondo ONZ 1,
00-124 Warszawa
t: +48 22 544 80 49
e: [email protected]
CBRE CAPITAL MARKETS
Chris Millen
Director,
CB Richard Ellis
Rondo ONZ 1,
00-124 Warszawa
t: +48 22 544 80 70
e: [email protected]
CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Joanna Mroczek
Associate Director,
CB Richard Ellis
Rondo ONZ 1,
00-124 Warszawa
t: +48 22 544 80 61
e: [email protected]
Disclaimer 2009 CB Richard Ellis
Q3 2009
Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it
and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and
completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future
performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced without
prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis.© Copyright 2008 CB Richard Ellis
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visit www.cbre.com
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©2009, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
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