If You Shoot, Better Count Your Money

MEDIA REPRINT
Source: Gazeta Wyborcza
Author: Pawel Wronski
Circulation: 300,000
Type: Opinion-leading daily Polish newspaper
Date: November 10, 2014
Translation from original Polish
If You Shoot, Better Count Your Money
In case of drones or aircraft
flying at low speeds, less
expensive missiles, often of an
older generation, can be used.
Launching a multimillion dollar
missile to engage an inexpensive drone is purely a waste of
money – Thomas A. Kennedy.
PAWEL WRONSKI
The tender for building an air and missile defense system is the most expensive
element of the Polish Armed Forces’
modernization program in the period of
2013–2022. Its value is estimated as PLN
(Polish złoty) 26 billion, i.e., twice the
purchase cost of 48 F-16 aircraft. Currently two bidders have been shortlisted
within the tendering procedure: the
American company Raytheon offers the
Patriot system, and French company
Eurosam offers the Aster 30 missile. The
cost of the most advanced missiles is
approximately USD $5 million.
Interview with
Thomas A. Kennedy
Chairman and CEO, Raytheon Company
Patriot Fire Unit
Raytheon Company
Raytheon is among the five
largest global arms manufacturers specializing in missiles,
radars and electronic weapons.
It employs 63,000 people, and
its 2013 turnover exceeded
USD 24 billion. Among its most
famous products are the Patriot
system, cruise missiles, HARM
radar-fighting missiles, anti-tank
Javelin missiles, and GBU (glide
bomb unit) guided bombs.
Let’s try to use our imagination and
assume the worst has happened – a
war had broken out and missiles were
launched at Poland. Let’s assume
Poland has Raytheon’s missile defense
system. What’s happening then?
TAK: I travel a lot in Europe, Middle
East, Africa and I talk with many political leaders. Using various languages
and various words they say roughly the
same: a strong air and missile defense is
of key importance in modern conflicts.
Why? Because of its deterrence effect
on possible aggressors. So the point is
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not to launch our missiles but rather to
discourage the enemy from attack by
the fact of a mere presence of them; the
enemy gives up the plan of attack being
aware it would be ineffective. My imagination tells me that due to having such
an advanced missile defense (AMD)
system by Poland, a probability of an
aggression against your country would
be low.
Please don’t tell me that political leaders don’t ask Raytheon’s CEO about the
effectiveness of the Patriot system.
TAK: And again the answer is quite
easy. I don’t have to tell how our missiles
shoot down targets; I simply present
these leaders the results of its tests, and
tell them how much our system has improved in the last few years. It is already
being used by 12 countries, and Qatar
will be the 13th. These countries have
been using the Patriot system for many
years and tested it against targets that
could be possible threats to them. Within
these tests more than 100 missiles are
launched every year against a variety
of targets and most of these targets are
“live” ones, I mean real cruise missiles,
real drones and real aircraft. There is no
other system in the world so thoroughly
tested and proven in combat conditions.
MEDIA REPRINT
Patriot is operated by Israel, which is
continuously under attack, and it also was
tested during the Gulf War (1990–1991).
At the time when the decision to build
an advanced AMD system in Poland
was being made, some opinions were
voiced that this is a choice of both a
technological and political nature.
Looking from this perspective why, in
your opinion, should Poland buy just
the American missiles?
TAK: We are close allies and we share the
same system of values. Our soldiers
exercise together, currently some U.S.
troops are present in Poland. Poland and
the U.S. should take care of interoperability, i.e., cooperation capability of our
armed forces. Moreover, cooperation
with us provides an opportunity for
Poland’s defense industry to get access to
state-of-the-art technologies and to offer
its products globally to the the Patriot
user countries.
Critics of the “American” solution
point out that Patriot is a system that
has been in operation for several decades. It has demonstrated its effectiveness in war conditions against old Iraqi
Scud missiles. However, one of our
neighbors declares from time to time
it will deploy its advanced Iskander
missiles near our borders.
TAK: The Polish Ministry of National
Defence has received from us and the
U.S. Army all data to provide the answer
to this question. This includes technical
data referring to our missile flight parameters. This is classified information.
Does this mean that if Poland is threatened by the Iskander missiles. Patriot
missiles would be able to shoot them
down?
TAK: This means that the Polish Defence
Ministry knows whether they will be
shot down.
We call it generally Patriot but actually
this is a complex system consisting in
radars, target tracking devices, carriers, fire control centers, and finally, the
most expensive component: the missiles. Raytheon offers several types of
missiles to Poland. Why? Your French
competitor offers just a single missile
type – Aster 30 that is a versatile one.
The French claim that’s the reason why
the missile is less expensive.
TAK: Our philosophy is different – we
offer a mix or various missiles. Why?
Because our system is smart enough
to identify a target and select the right
missile. For example, such a missile that
cannot be “outfoxed” by the enemy’s
missile, especially when the enemy is not
sure what kind of missile will be used by
us. Another important issue are costs.
In the case of drones or aircraft flying at
low speeds, less expensive missiles, often
of an older generation, can be used. On
the other hand, when we are exposed to
an attack with tactical ballistic missiles,
a more sophisticated weapon should be
used. Launching a multimillion dollar
missile to engage an inexpensive drone is
purely a waste of money.
A strong point of our system is its huge
flexibility: various missiles can be placed
in the launchers.
Let me refer once more to your competitor. The French claim that in general terms they offer a less expensive
solution.
TAK: Let me draw something (he draws
a big triangle on a sheet of paper, with its
tip protruding above a line). This is an
iceberg. Only its tip is visible above the
water. This tip is the acquisition cost. All
the rest are operation, testing and modernizations costs. This kind of weapon
system should be continuously tested and
adjusted to changing environment. In
case of the Patriot system, costs of these
efforts would be divided by 14. Why?
Because this is the number of nations
that will operate it; 14 countries will
conduct tests and modernizations. In the
case of the missile you mentioned, these
costs need to be divided by two because
there are two nations that operate it.
The American offer includes also a very
advanced radar featuring a 360 degree
field of view. So far such a radar has not
been used in the Patriot system.
TAK: Because this radar is only being
developed and we are going to do that
in partnership with the Polish PITRADWAR company.
Raytheon’s offer includes a missile that
is claimed to be cheaper than all other
ones used within the Patriot system.
What’s the point?
TAK: Among the missiles offered to
Poland, we are proposing the Low Cost
Interceptor (LCI). This would be a
significantly cheaper intercepting missile
whose production we’d like to launch
in Poland. We have developed a concept
of such a missile and there are technical
capabilities to manufacture it. We have
discussed this issue with Skarzysko’s
Mesko plant, among other companies.
2
Will Poland be allowed to export this
missile? The point is that often exports
from Poland are prevented by the
manufacturer’s right, as was the case
with the Rosomak armored personnel
carrier, the right for which are held by
Finland.
TAK: This would be our joint project and
missiles of this type would be exported
to all countries that operate the Patriot
system. I think it will attract a big interest. Together we have already developed
with Poland, an IFF system that we
are going to export. We can cooperate
with 116 Polish companies and we have
signed 27 Letters of Intent with Polish
enterprises.
Polish Defence Ministry talks about
six or eight AMD batteries. Recently,
due to the tension in the east, it wants
to accelerate deliveries. How soon can
the first Patriot missiles can appear in
Poland after a possible signing of the
contract?
TAK: Precisely, we are able to deliver
them within three years. However, we
don’t yet know how big Poland’s order
will be, and which missiles it would
like to have – because it is the Polish
Defence Ministry that specifies what
Poland needs.
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