PL071 2.indd - Biuranet.pl

Poland | Spring 2007
Commercial Property Markets Overview
Poland – Warsaw
Economic Overview
The Polish economy has continued to
improve throughout the last couple of
years with GDP growth at 5.8% recorded
in 2006 (as much as 6.3% in Q4 2006),
which shows an increase by 2.6 percentage
points on year-on year. Unemployment has
recently decreased to 14.2%.
Poland’s growth has been driven to a
significant extent by strong increase
of export, higher consumer spending,
The Office Market
Encouraged by very positive economic
indicators and forecasts, occupiers
have been and still are in the expansion
mood. Throughout the whole 2006,
take-up exceeded 350,000 sq m (excl.
renegotiations), which is the best result
since the mid 90s. Taking into account
renegotiations, the take-up was around
412,600 sq m.
Office Stock by District — 2006
Source: DTZ Research, WRF
2
Centre
Non Central
Total
Inflation/
Unemployment
in %
GDP / Industrial
13 output annual
11
growth in %
9
25
20
15
7
10
3
5
1
-1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 0
Inflation
Unemployment
GDP
Industrial output
* Forecast
Source: GUS, Macroeconomic Consensus Forecast
Total stock
(sq m)
1,031,221
1,525,915
2,557,136
New supply
(sq m)
76,355
110,281
186,636
Vacancy rate
5.43%
5.39%
5.37%
Take-up*
(sq m)
159,354
193,215
352,568
* excl. negotiations
Most of the deals signed in 2006 were
sealed in the City Centre and Upper South,
which had 28.5% and 21% market share.
By the end of 2006 the vacancy rate in
Warsaw dropped to 5.37%, which is the
lowest since over a decade. The availability
in Central locations fell to 5.34% (compared
with 12.15% in Q4 2005), while Non Central
zones recorded 5.39% vacancy rate
Annual Supply (Major Markets):
2000-2007*
(5.47%). Some of the subzones like West,
East, Upper South had a vacancy between
1.7-2.9%.
Due to scarcity of space available, prime
Class A headline rents (for units above
1,000 sq m) in the Central locations
increased to €22-24 sq m / month. The
average rent for a City Centre ranges from
€18 to 21 per sq m / month. The best NonCentral office developments reach the level
of €14-16 with the average between €1213 sq m / month. Incentives (ranging from
5-15%) are provided by landlords mainly
in large pre-lease transactions. However,
low availability in the existing projects
provides strong position for landlords, who
Annual Take-Up (Major Markets):
2000-2007*
400,000
sq m
350,000
300 000
300,000
250 000
250,000
200 000
200,000
150 000
150,000
100 000
100,000
50 000
50,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Central
* Forecast
Prime headline
(€/sq m/month)
€22-24
€14-16
Source: DTZ Research, WRF
A number of large leasing transactions were
completed, including: Fortis Bank (11,200
sq m in Trinity Park II), Generali (6,300 sq m
in Marynarska Point), ABG Ster-Projekt
(5,850 sq m in Millennium Plaza) and
Polbank (4,780 sq m in Riverside Park).
350 000
City Centre
24.6%
East
South Lower North 5.1%
East South 4.4%
3.9% 3.5%
15
5
According to the OECD, economic
activity should gain strength in 2007,
driven by domestic demand. In the
short-term inflation may increase, but
the Central Bank’s monetary tightening
policy will maintain annual inflation within
2.5% target area.
400 000
Core
15.8%
Upper South
18.4%
South West
15.2%
Poland – Major Economic Indicators:
2000-2007*
Annual Office Market Data – 2006
The Warsaw office stock increased by
186,600 sq m in 2006, bringing the total
modern supply to 2.56 million sq m. Most
of new deliveries are located in the Upper
South and Core subzones – 31.7% and
30% respectively. The most spectacular
completions of last year were: Rondo 1
(55,000 sq m), Prosta Office Center
(18,000 sq m) and Cirrus (13,000 sq m).
It should be noted that the bulk of space
delivered was prelet.
West
9.1%
industrial production and inward
investment. The latest data confirms
record and larger than predicted volume
of FDI in Poland in 2006 amounting to
14.7 billion USD (up from 9.6 billion
in 2005).
0
Non Central
Source: DTZ Research
sq m
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Central
* Forecast
Non Central
Source: DTZ Research
Warsaw — The Office Market
Major Office Buildings Completed – 2006
Building
Rondo 1
Trinity Park I
Prosta Office Center
Cirrus
CPF Bobrowiecka
Topaz
Parkur Tower
Salzburg Center
Location
Core
Upper South
City Centre
Upper South
South East
Upper South
Lower South
South West
Area (sq m)
56,000
18,100
18,000
12,855
12,450
11,080
8,500
8,000
Developer
Hochtief Projectmanagement
Ghelamco
Ghelamco
ECI
Vicar
GTC
UBM / Warimpex
Immoeast
Nationality
GER
BEL
BEL
POL
POL
POL
AUT
AUT
Major Office Buildings Under Construction or Planned for 2007/2008
North Gate, Warsaw
are unwilling to grant large discounts as in
recent years.
Supply for 2007 should be in the range of
210,000 – 240,000 sq m; in 2008: over
300,000 sq m (the bulk located in South
West). It is worth mentioning that some
100,000 sq m has been already pre-let.
Take-up in 2007 is likely to exceed 300,000
sq m mark again (provided all large
requirements result in preleases signed).
Further pre-leases are likely to occur. Strong
demand together with lack of available
options will result in further falling of the
vacancy rate over course of the next 6-8
months. In 18-24 months availability in Non
Central locations could rise significantly.
Building
Złote Tarasy (Lumen, Tower)
Marynarska Business Park
Marynarska Point
Trinity Park II
IO-I
International Business Center II
Acciona Office Centre
Mokotów Plaza
Wiśniowy BP F
Location
Core
Upper South
Upper South
Upper South
Upper South
City Centre
West
Upper South
South West
Area (sq m)
45,000
43,000
25,000
24,000
23,500
19,400
17,500
17,000
16,100
Developer
ING RE
Ghelamco
Skanska Property Poland
Ghelamco
Immoeast
Quinlan Private Golub
Acciona Nieruchomości
Celtic Asset Management
Quinlan Private Golub
Nationality
NED
BEL
SWE
BEL
AUT
US
SPA
UK
US
Major Office Transactions – 2006
Building
Trinity Park II
Marynarska Point
Millennium Plaza
UBC *
Riverside Park
Warsaw Trade Tower
Cirrus
Warsaw Trade Tower
Warsaw Towers
Europlex
Warsaw Towers
Rondo 1
Prosta Office Center
Location
Upper South
Upper South
City Centre
Upper South
City Centre
City Centre
Upper South
City Centre
Core
Upper South
Core
Core
City Centre
Sq m
11,200
6,270
5,850
5,500
4,800
4,700
4,300
4,200
4,150
3,400
3,140
2,850
2,800
Developer
Fortis Bank
Generali
ABG Ster Projekt
Nestle
Polbank
Orlen
GSK
IPA
Procter & Gamble
CardPoint
Altcom
Frontex
Infovide
Nationality
FIRE
FIRE
ICT
Manufacturing
FIRE
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
BS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Public
ICT
* Renegotiations; BS - Business Services, FIRE - Financial, Insurance, Real Estate, ICT - Information, Communication, Technology
In 2007, the prime rents in the City Centre
will continue to reach the level of €22-24
per sq m / month. Non Central areas
will remain at the same level of
€14-16 per sq m. In H2 2008 and
2009 rental rates may drop in Non Central
areas due to large pipeline supply.
Existing and Planned Supply in
Regional Cities
500,000 sq m
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 Kraków
Existing stock
Kraków Business Park
Tricity
Wrocław Katowice Poznań
Pipeline projects 2007-2008
Łódź
Pipeline projects 2009-2013
Source: DTZ Research
After slowdown years of 2002-2004, the
office market in the regional cities has
been developing very fast throughout the
last months. Throughout 2005 and 2006
both developers as well as occupiers’
activities have intensified, resulting in falling
vacancy levels, which ranges from 2% in
Kraków to 6% in Łódź. Demand for office
space outside of Warsaw has been mainly
driven by companies, who decided to
locate their BPO functions there. Over the
next two to four years, the supply could
double, provided that developers’ plans are
completed.
3
Warsaw – The Office Market
Office Lease Terms / Tenant & Landlord Obligations
Vacancy Rates (Major Markets):
2000-2007*
Purchaser’s Costs (as % of freehold price)
Maximum PLN 20,000 (€4,700) (registry) + 2% (of land value)
1-3%
By agreement
22% of the property value (incl. land).
Buildings must be under 5 years old)
22% recoverable
Transfer tax
Agent's fees
Legal fees
VAT
VAT on transaction fees
22
%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
Landlord and tenant responsibilities
Landlord
Structural repairs
Internal repairs
Tenant
Normal maintenance
Tenant
Landlord insures and recovers cost from tenant
Variable
Usually (excluding structure and machinery replacement)
Full recovery of repairs and service charges from tenant*
Transfer tax
Agent's fees
Legal fees
VAT
VAT on transaction fees
Taxation liabilities of tenant related to occupancy (5 of annual rent)
Land tax (depends on plot size)
usually included in service charge
22%
Parking ratios
Parking rents
Management fees
Typical service charge
Corporate tax rate
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
4
City Gate
Warsaw Trade Tower
Atruim Plaza
Atrium Center
Atrium Tower
Atrium
Sienna Center
Warta Tower
Millenium Plaza
PZU Tower
Warsaw Fin. Center
Warsaw Towers
Saski Point
Roma Office Center
Wspólna 47-49
Stratos
Raiffeisen BC
Focus
Centrum Giełdowe
IBC I, II
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Saski Crescent
Centrum Jasna
Metropolitan
Zlote Tarasy
Liberty Corner
Dom Dochdowy
Ujazdowiskie 10
Rondo I
Atrium City∗
Kaskada
Norway House
Nautilus
Nordic Park
Centrum Krolewska
Zielna Point
Zielna Center A, B, C
Silver Tower
DT Centrum
Deloitte House
Ilmet
FIM Tower
Riverside Park
Holland Park
Prosta Office Center
∗ planned or
under construction
2005 2006
2007*
Non Central
Source: DTZ Research
25
20
Others
None for EU members, other must obtain a permit from the
Ministry of Internal Affairs
City centre-typically 1:70-1:100 sq m (underground);
out of centre-typically 1:20-1:30 sq m (underground/
surface)
€150-180 / space (city centre);
€70-80 / space (out of centre)
€0.35-0.6 sq m / month of gross lettable area
€3-4 sq m / month
19%
Lease structure
Standard lease document
None
Rent payable every
Month
Rent guarantee period
3 months
Typical lease length
3-7 years
Statutory right to renew the lease
None
Frequency of rent reviews
Rare
Frequency and basis
Annual / Basis is
US or Eurozone of
indexation of rents
inflation depending on
denomination of rent
Office
Retail
CBD
Central Warsaw
Office / Retail
2004
City Centre
35 €/sq m/month
30
15
10
5
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008*
Central
Non Central
* Forecast
Source: DTZ Research
Old Town
1
37
2
3
Saski Park
4
5
6
40
7
35 36
34
11
28
8
23
Plac Teatralny
21 13
10
29
44
30
9
12
Palace
22
of Culture
24
38
41
33
14
s ki e
go
Restriction on ownership of property by foreigners
2003
Prime Headline Rents: 2000-2008*
Occupier's transaction costs
12-15% (of first year's rent), % of savings
By agreement
Agents fees
Legal fees
2002
* Forecast
15
ału
biń
VAT
2001
Average
31
Ch
Local tax
Vendor transaction costs (as a % of purchase price)
None
1.2-5%
By agreement
None
22%
25
Plac Trzech
26 Krzyzy 19
16
32
17 39
43
27
18
20
42
Poland – The Investment Market
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Brama Zachodnia
Jerozolimskie BP
Ochota Office Park
Philips Company House
Taifun
Flanders Business Park
Mokotów Business Park
UBC I, II
Centrum Finansowe Puławska
Europlex
Bitwy Warszawskiej BC
Kopernik Complex
Crown Investments
Centrum Millenium
Mokotów Business Park
Antares
Wiśniowy Business Park
Blue Point
Mistral
Batory
Renaissance Tower & Plaza
Trinity Park I, II
Marynarska Business Park *
Gdansk, Gdynia
Retail
Industrial
1
2
3
21
22
17
21
4
5
2
E30 Poznań, Berlin
19
8
12
10
12
18
5
3
5
20
19
4
9
23
6
4
19
11
3
17
Żeran Park
Kolmet
Manhattan Business Park
ProLogis Park Warsaw
Warsaw Distribution Center
Bokserska Office & Distribution
Center
Platan Park I, II
Piaseczno DC - Olmar
Diamond Bus. Park Piaseczno
Ożarow Business Center
Europa Park
ProLogis Park Blonie
Alliance Logistics Center
ProLogis Park Teresin
Metropol Park Blonie
Diamond Bus. Park Janki
Airnet
Stolica Business Center
Millenium Logistic Park
Pruszków DC
Metropol Park Jagiellońska
City Point Warsaw
Krakowska Distribution Park
Łopuszańska Business Park
* schemes under construction or planned
1
2
16
7
13
21
20
14
18
6
14
12
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
15
13
1
2
3
4
5
6
Office
E77
9
10
14
13
17
7
22 15 12
23
16
6
8
E30 Kiev, Moscow
14
7
16
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
22
15
18
11
8
E30 Mszczonów, Katowice, Krakow, Wrocław, Łodź
The Investment Market
The capital spent on property investments
reached the record level for the second
consecutive year. The total volume
exceeded €4.6 billion. The retail
attracted nearly half of this sum,
followed by the office sector with 41%
of the market share. The remaining 9% is
split among warehousing, hotel as
well as mixed projects. Residential
property investments are not tracked by
DTZ Research due to lack of transparency,
however we notice that this type of
product is highly sought after by many
investors. We expect this trend to
continue as prices of residential space
in Warsaw as well as in major cities have
been increasing rapidly.
Over a half of investment transactions
were sealed outside of Warsaw,
which shows that investors are still
very much interested in regional
locations.
23
9
The most active players in Poland recruit from
property funds from the USA, Luxembourg
and UK, such as GE Real Estate, Heitman,
AXA, Dawney Day or London Regional.
There are still opportunities in regeneration
/ redevelopment projects and we see many
investors looking for this type of properties,
which are management intensive but also
M1 Marki
CH Targowek
Auchan / Leroy Merlin
CH Bernowo
Wola Park
Klif
Promenada
Tesco
Reduta
Europlex
CH Janki
Galeria Mokotów
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Panorama
Sadyba Best Mall
Auchan
Blue City
Arkadia
Factory Outlet Ursus
Centrum Okęcie
Fort Wola
Centrum Wileńska
Maximus
Fashion House Piaseczno
of higher return premium.
Yields continued to harden over 2006 but
at slower pace. Prime office yields are
currently at 5.5% and should be stable the
next 12 months. Retail sector records yields
of 5.75% and should stabilize at 5.5%.
With increasing investment activity in the
warehouse sector, have witnessed yields
falling recently to 6.5%.
Major Investment Transactions – 2006
Quarter
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
Location
Warsaw
Warsaw
Poland
Warsaw
Łódź
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Gdańsk
Warsaw
Warsaw
Gniezno
Poland
Warsaw
Warsaw
Poland
Warsaw
Łódź
Warsaw
Gdańsk
Warsaw
Sector
Office
Office
Retail
Retail
Warehouse
Office
Warehouse
Office
Retail
Retail
Office
Retail
Retail
Warehouse
Warehouse
Retail
Office
Retail
Office
Office
Retail
Property
Metropolitan
Rondo 1
OBI
Promenada
Diamond BP
Prosta 69
Metropol Park Warsaw
Raiffeisen BC
74% shares of Galeria Baltycka
Okęcie Office and Retail Park
Wiśniowy Busineess Park C-F
Galeria Gniezno
Casino hypermarkets
Krakowska DP
Stolica BC
Metro 49%
Mokotów Business Park
Pasaż Łódzki
Millennium Plaza
Artus Park
Targówech Retail Park
Purchaser
Nationality
DEGI
GER
London Regional Partners
UK
W.P. Carey
USA
Dawney Day
UK
AIB
IRL
Orco Endurance Fund
LUX
Teesland iOG
UK
Invesco
UK
Deutsche Euroshop
GER
BPH TFI
POL
AIB Polonia
IRL
AIM
UK
GE Capital
USA
First Property
UK
Pramerica
UK
Axa
LUX
Heitman
USA
Pradera
SPAIN
Atlas Estates Ltd
ISR
DEKA
GER
Credit Suisse AM
LUX
Volume
€165.00
€265.00
€166.00
€127.00
€40.00
€15.50
€18.00
€63.00
€123.00
€132.00
€62.00
€21.10
€555.00
€13.00
€20.00
€600.00
€225.72
€32.00
€78.00
€17.00
€29.00
5
Poland - The Retail Market
The Retail Market
The total modern retail stock in Poland
(i.e. completed since 1990) exceeded
6.7 million sq m at the end of 2006. The
highest saturation level has been noticed on
Warsaw retail market and reached 782 sq
m per 1,000 inhabitants. 21.5 % of Polish
modern supply is located in Warsaw.
Over 554,900 sq m of new retail supply
was completed in 2006 compared to
612,000 sq m delivered in 2005. Major new
openings included Manufaktura in Łódź,
Galeria Krakowska in Kraków, Arena in
Gliwice, Auchan in Krasne near Rzeszów
and Galeria Słowiańska in Zgorzelec.
Similarly to 1999, 2007 will be the record
year with over 1.1 million sq m in the retail
projects in pipeline. New developments
scheduled for 2007 include Złote Tarasy
in Warsaw, Arkady Wrocławskie and
Pasaż Grunwaldzki in Wrocław, Focus in
Bydgoszcz, Forum in Gliwice and Galeria
Biała in Białystok. Further into the future,
DTZ is aware of a total nationwide supply
pipeline in the region of 1.3 million sq m,
although it is not yet clear whether all
schemes will be delivered.
Retail market trends, which had evolved
in previous years, has continued and
strengthened also throughout 2006.
DTZ has noticed increasing supply of
new concepts such as factory outlets,
neighbourhood shopping centres, local
shopping centres in medium-size cities and
specialised developments such as home
decoration and furniture centres.
Retail Supply: 1993-2008*
1 200 000 Annual supply
sq m
1 000 000
Cumulative supply
sq m
6 000 000
5 000 000
600 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
Around 39% of new supply delivered in
2006 was located in smaller cites and
according to DTZ Research half of retail
stock planned for 2007 will be developed
outside of the eight major agglomerations.
New hotspots on the Polish retail market
are Białystok (22% of pipeline supply
scheduled for 2007), Bydgoszcz (15%),
Lublin (12%) and Legnica (9%).
Demand for high quality retail space in
2006 remains strong both in major Polish
cities and secondary and tertiary cities.
New retailers, that decided to open its
first store in Poland include Carpetright,
Gelco, Goertz 17, Lucy Home and Sunglass
2 000 000
200 000
0
8 000 000
7 000 000
800 000
400 000
DTZ statistics prove that small and medium
sized towns and cities are on the radar’s
screen of retail space developers. There are
still pipeline and under construction projects
in eight major cities/agglomerations (namely
Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Szczecin,
TriCity, Upper Silesia and Wrocław), however
the percentage of total stock located there
is steadily decreasing. At the end of 2006
it accounted for 69% of total volume, in
comparison to 78% in 2004.
9 000 000
1 000 000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006* 2005 2007* 2008*
* Forecast
0
Source: DTZ Research
Center. Established retail chains plan
further expansion and new store openings
in 2007. The most aggressive expansion
strategy have such chains as C&A, CCC,
Empik, H&M, Inditex Group brands (Zara,
Bershka, Pull&Bear, Stradivarius and
Oysho), Mango and Tally Weijl.
Vacancy rates in shopping centres in eight
major cities remain at the stable, low level.
The highest vacancy rate has been noticed
in Warsaw (2.9%), mainly due to high rates
in older and/or less successful centres. The
best shopping centres are almost fully let.
The lowest vacancy rate was recorded in
Wrocław (0.4%) and Poznań (0.5%).
Rents in major Polish cities, depending
on factors such as shopping centre
positioning, tenant’s reputation, location
within a shopping centre and size of unit
range from €55-65 per sq m / month for a
prime 100 sq m unit.
Key Retail Market Indicators in Poland
City / Area
Upper Silesia
Warsaw Greater Area
Tri-City
Łódź
Kraków
Wrocław
Poznań
Szczecin
Poland
Existing stock
(sq m)
895,000
1,440,000
460,000
430,000
440,000
315,000
420,000
205,000
6,650,000
Sq m per 1,000
inhabitants
363
782
575
555
580
494
734
496
174
Pipeline
(sq m)
260,000
170,000
106,000
15,000
120,000
290,000
320,000
146,000
2,800,000
Vacancy rate
(%)
0.6
2.9
0.9
1.2
1.7
0.4
0.5
1.3
N/A
Source: DTZ Research, Retail Research Forum
Major pipeline retail schemes
Project
Bonarka Shopping Centre
Galeria Legnicka
Felicity
Idylla Wrocławska
Galeria Malta
Forum Koszalin
Millenium Hall
Forum
6
Location
Kraków
Wrocław
Lublin
Wrocław
Poznań
Koszalin
Rzeszów
Gliwice/ Upper Silesia
GLA (sq m)
90,000
74,000
59,000
55,200
55,000
54,000
50,000
46,000
Developer
TriGranit
Redis
Gray International
Mayland RE (Casino)
Neinver
Multi Development
Conres
Braaten & Pedersen
Delivery
2008
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
In terms of prospects for retail rents, these
will depend on the shopping centre in
question. DTZ considers that the strongest
schemes that have good location and
limited direct competition are likely to
sustain the current rental levels of even see
some growth as retailers seek to find store
representation in such locations.
Secondary shopping centres are likely to
see lowering of rental levels and weaker
tenant demand, which will result in
increasing vacancy rates unless rental levels
are reduced. This trend has already been
noticed in some older schemes in the most
developed markets like Warsaw or Kraków.
Poland - The Industrial and Logistics Market
Annual supply and take-up:
1997-2006
900,000 sq m
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Until 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1997
Supply
Take up
Source: DTZ Research
Motorways to be delivered by 2013 according to plans of the Ministry of Transport and Construction
Slupsk
Logistics Market
At the end of 2006 the modern warehousing
market in Poland stood at the level of approx.
2.7 million sq m. The new supply in 2006
reached over 382,000 sq m of modern
warehousing space and developers started
construction of further 512,500 sq m. The
Greater Warsaw area (3 zones) accounts for
62% of the total stock and the rest is located
in the other five locations in the rest Poland:
Upper and Lower Silesia, Central Poland,
Poznań Region and most recently Tricity
Region.
At the end of last year developers started
the record number of projects and in the
first months of 2007 approx. 500,000 sq m
of modern warehousing space should be
completed. Majority of that space is being
developed on speculative basis however
150,000 sq m has been already pre-let. One
third of that space will be delivered in the
Upper Silesia region, which is the fastest
growing regional market in Poland.
In the medium- and long-term developers aim
to complete almost 4.5 million sq m of space.
The speed of these deliveries will depend on
the market conditions.
Demand is currently growing across all
locations and we have recently witnessed
a record level of leasing transactions. 2006
was the third consecutive year when the level
of take up almost doubled when compared
to the previous year. Almost 830,000 sq m
Elblag
Suwalki
Olsztyn
Szczecin
Kolbaskowo
Łomza
Bydgoszcz
Pila
Gorzów Wielkopolski
Toruń
Bialystok
Ostroleka
Ciechanów
Poznań
Region
Wloclawek
Plock
Poznań
WARSAWA
Swiecko
Konin
Zielona
Góra
Kalisz
Olszyna
Lower
Silesia
Motorways planned by the
Ministry of Transport
and Construction
by the year 2013
Stykow
Łódż
Greater Warsaw
Zone I-III
Sieradz
Central
Poland
Legnica
Jedrzychowice
Siedlce
Leszno
Wrocław
Jelenia
Góra
The Industrial and
Gdynia
Sopot
Gdańsk
Tricity Region
Koszalin
Piotrków Trybunalski
Radom
Lublin
Chelm
Kielce
Walbrzych
Opole
Kukuryki
Biala Podlaska
Zamosc
Czestochowa
Tarnobrzeg
Upper
Silesia
Katowice
Kraków
Rzeszów
Tarnów
Gorzyczki
Completed
Under construction
Planned
was transacted in 2006. Upper Silesia with
almost 155,180 sq m of modern warehouse
space let, was the leader among the regional
locations. We have also recorded the first
couple of leasing transactions in the Tricity
region.
The vacancy rates have been fluctuating and
at the end of the year were at the level of
7.1% market wide and 5.8% in the regional
markets.
Headline rents for modern warehouses in
Poland remained relatively stable over the
course of the past 18 months. However, due
Bielsko-Biala
Korczowa
Przemysl
Nowy Sacz
Krosno
to strong competition and aggressive leasing
policy of warehouse developers, we still
observe incentives being offered to tenants of
between 6 and 12 months rent free periods.
Rental rates for modern warehousing space
in schemes in regional locations continued
to be lower than in the Greater Warsaw
region. Overall, the headline rents for modern
warehousing space in the Greater Warsaw
area are in the range of €3.00-5.50 and in
the regional location between €3.00-3.40 per
sq m per month. Office rentals for regional
locations are between €6.00-8.00 per sq m
per month.
Major Industrial and Warehousing Transactions
Building
Panattoni Poznań
Tulipan Park Stryków
ProLogis Park Chorzów
Parkridge DC Sochaczew
ProLogis Park Zeran II
ProLogis Wrocław b-t-s
Logistic City Piotrków
ProLogis Wrocław
ProLogis Wrocław
Tiner Wrocław
ProLogis Park Teresin
ProLogis Park Chorzów
ProLogis Park Chorzów
Parkridge DC Nadarzyn
ProLogis Park Teresin
Tulipan Park Stryków
Tulipan Park Stryków
Diamond BP Gliwice
Diamond BP Gliwice
ProLogis Park Piotrków
Tulipan Park Stryków
Parkridge Dàbrowa G.
ProLogis Park Poznań II
ProLogis Park Poznań II
Parkridge Dàbrowa G.
ProLogis Park Teresin
Tulipan Park Stryków
Tenant
Area (sq m)
H&M
60,000
Corning
43,000
Raben
28,500
P&G
26,000
ABC Data
24,371
Wrozamet
24,000
M&M
21,000
Hi -P Poland
18,987
Carlsberg
18,425
Muller Die lila Logistik
18,000
Tesco
17,722
FM
17,500
Reporter
13,367
Hellman Moritz
12,500
Tesco
12,400
Komfort
12,000
Aveka
12,000
Delphi Automotive
11,000
Toya
10,500
Unilever
10,454
Azymut
10,000
Saint Gobain
9,000
Lidl
8,993
Distriland
8,902
Magna Automotive Poland
8,500
DHL/Exel
8,368
Sonoco
8,000
Business sector
Retail logistics
Light production
Logistics
Distribution
Electronics
White goods
Logistics
Distribution
Distribution
Logistics
Retail logistics
Logistics
Retail logistics
Logistics
Retail logistics
Distribution
Distribution
Automotive
Distribution
FMCG
Distribution
Glass manufacturing
Retail logistics
Logistics
Automotive
Logistics
Food Distribution
Location
Poznań Region
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Warsaw - Zone
Lower Silesia
Central Poland
Lower Silesia
Lower Silesia
Lower Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Central Poland
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Poznań Region
Poznań Region
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Central Poland
3
1
3
2
3
Source: DTZ Research
7
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Poland - The Industrial and Logistics Market
Slupsk
Gdynia
Sopot
Gdańsk
Tricity Region
Koszalin
Elblag
Suwalki
Olsztyn
Szczecin
Annual supply and take-up:
1997-2006
900,000 sq m
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Until 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1997
Supply
Take up
Kolbaskowo
Gorzów Wielkopolski
Toruń
Logistics Market
At the end of 2006 the modern warehousing
market in Poland stood at the level of approx.
2.7 million sq m. The new supply in 2006
reached over 382,000 sq m of modern
warehousing space and developers started
construction of further 512,500 sq m. The
Greater Warsaw area (3 zones) accounts for
62% of the total stock and the rest is located
in the other five locations in the rest Poland:
Upper and Lower Silesia, Central Poland,
Poznań Region and most recently Tricity
Region.
At the end of last year developers started
the record number of projects and in the
first months of 2007 approx. 500,000 sq m
of modern warehousing space should be
completed. Majority of that space is being
developed on speculative basis however
150,000 sq m has been already pre-let. One
third of that space will be delivered in the
Upper Silesia region, which is the fastest
growing regional market in Poland.
In the medium- and long-term developers aim
to complete almost 4.5 million sq m of space.
The speed of these deliveries will depend on
the market conditions.
Demand is currently growing across all
locations and we have recently witnessed
a record level of leasing transactions. 2006
was the third consecutive year when the level
of take up almost doubled when compared
to the previous year. Almost 830,000 sq m
Bialystok
Ostroleka
Ciechanów
Poznań
Region
Wloclawek
Plock
Poznań
WARSAWA
Swiecko
Konin
Zielona
Góra
Kalisz
Olszyna
Lower
Silesia
Łódż
Central
Poland
Wrocław
Jelenia
Góra
Stykow
Greater Warsaw
Zone I-III
Sieradz
Legnica
Jedrzychowice
Siedlce
Leszno
Piotrków Trybunalski
Walbrzych
Opole
Kukuryki
Biala Podlaska
Radom
Lublin
Chelm
Kielce
Zamosc
Czestochowa
Tarnobrzeg
Source: DTZ Research
The Industrial and
Łomza
Bydgoszcz
Pila
Upper
Silesia
Motorways planned by the
Motorways
to be delivered Gorzyczki
Ministry of Transport
by 2013
according
to plans of the
and
Construction
byTransport
the year 2013
Ministry of
and Construction
Katowice
Kraków
Rzeszów
Tarnów
Bielsko-Biala
Korczowa
Przemysl
Nowy Sacz
Krosno
Completed
Under construction
Planned
was transacted in 2006. Upper Silesia with
almost 155,180 sq m of modern warehouse
space let, was the leader among the regional
locations. We have also recorded the first
couple of leasing transactions in the Tricity
region.
The vacancy rates have been fluctuating and
at the end of the year were at the level of
7.1% market wide and 5.8% in the regional
markets.
Headline rents for modern warehouses in
Poland remained relatively stable over the
course of the past 18 months. However, due
to strong competition and aggressive leasing
policy of warehouse developers, we still
observe incentives being offered to tenants of
between 6 and 12 months rent free periods.
Rental rates for modern warehousing space
in schemes in regional locations continued
to be lower than in the Greater Warsaw
region. Overall, the headline rents for modern
warehousing space in the Greater Warsaw
area are in the range of €3.00-5.50 and in
the regional location between €3.00-3.40 per
sq m per month. Office rentals for regional
locations are between €6.00-8.00 per sq m
per month.
Major Industrial and Warehousing Transactions
Building
Panattoni Poznań
Tulipan Park Stryków
ProLogis Park Chorzów
Parkridge DC Sochaczew
ProLogis Park Zeran II
ProLogis Wrocław b-t-s
Logistic City Piotrków
ProLogis Wrocław
ProLogis Wrocław
Tiner Wrocław
ProLogis Park Teresin
ProLogis Park Chorzów
ProLogis Park Chorzów
Parkridge DC Nadarzyn
ProLogis Park Teresin
Tulipan Park Stryków
Tulipan Park Stryków
Diamond BP Gliwice
Diamond BP Gliwice
ProLogis Park Piotrków
Tulipan Park Stryków
Parkridge Dàbrowa G.
ProLogis Park Poznań II
ProLogis Park Poznań II
Parkridge Dàbrowa G.
ProLogis Park Teresin
Tulipan Park Stryków
Tenant
Area (sq m)
H&M
60,000
Corning
43,000
Raben
28,500
P&G
26,000
ABC Data
24,371
Wrozamet
24,000
M&M
21,000
Hi -P Poland
18,987
Carlsberg
18,425
Muller Die lila Logistik
18,000
Tesco
17,722
FM
17,500
Reporter
13,367
Hellman Moritz
12,500
Tesco
12,400
Komfort
12,000
Aveka
12,000
Delphi Automotive
11,000
Toya
10,500
Unilever
10,454
Azymut
10,000
Saint Gobain
9,000
Lidl
8,993
Distriland
8,902
Magna Automotive Poland
8,500
DHL/Exel
8,368
Sonoco
8,000
Business sector
Retail logistics
Light production
Logistics
Distribution
Electronics
White goods
Logistics
Distribution
Distribution
Logistics
Retail logistics
Logistics
Retail logistics
Logistics
Retail logistics
Distribution
Distribution
Automotive
Distribution
FMCG
Distribution
Glass manufacturing
Retail logistics
Logistics
Automotive
Logistics
Food Distribution
Location
Poznań Region
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Warsaw - Zone
Lower Silesia
Central Poland
Lower Silesia
Lower Silesia
Lower Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Central Poland
Central Poland
Upper Silesia
Poznań Region
Poznań Region
Upper Silesia
Warsaw - Zone
Central Poland
3
1
3
2
3
Source: DTZ Research
7